Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 3.752866 4.395444 5.106457 5.950363 6.923481 8.009163 9.311020
2025-10-12 2.780963 3.650074 4.715869 6.113438 7.891700 10.072193 12.941431
2025-10-19 2.183743 3.152123 4.445201 6.284975 8.819818 12.171578 16.918089
2025-10-26 1.739557 2.726052 4.143211 6.304393 9.488284 13.971314 20.716779
2025-11-02 1.372332 2.315790 3.762761 6.109564 9.776660 15.230930 23.880252
2025-11-09 1.078425 1.948744 3.366300 5.798287 9.806584 16.069200 26.476996
2025-11-16 0.891854 1.715351 3.131828 5.688083 10.106831 17.319216 29.811870
2025-11-23 0.753878 1.536868 2.953604 5.632483 10.469892 18.686313 33.461918
2025-11-30 0.684060 1.469318 2.955889 5.885807 11.384528 21.056519 39.029389
2025-12-07 0.596470 1.349234 2.839297 5.898023 11.858577 22.704898 43.509066
2025-12-14 0.519046 1.234422 2.712687 5.867891 12.241095 24.218026 47.889652
2025-12-21 0.456213 1.138458 2.607415 5.861278 12.660829 25.832802 52.609043
2025-12-28 0.443578 1.155727 2.746416 6.388119 14.230368 29.834149 62.347284
2026-01-04 0.405704 1.106816 2.735129 6.595335 15.175396 32.732885 70.273881
2026-01-11 0.371304 1.059548 2.719808 6.791087 16.120765 35.733655 78.719226
2026-01-18 0.330735 0.987957 2.635550 6.815947 16.693922 38.026878 85.949483
2026-01-25 0.283294 0.887566 2.464101 6.607665 16.712212 39.145462 90.824491
2026-02-01 0.237041 0.779852 2.254917 6.273082 16.389251 39.481625 94.040452
2026-02-08 0.206969 0.712500 2.138921 6.154592 16.563853 40.935443 99.854402
2026-02-15 0.183221 0.658979 2.050857 6.094781 16.873152 42.724437 106.595726
2026-02-22 0.173886 0.649416 2.084452 6.367509 18.056745 46.671332 118.683164
2026-03-01 0.157019 0.610954 2.027648 6.380664 18.567351 49.060582 127.326349
2026-03-08 0.140769 0.570746 1.958569 6.348231 18.952384 51.181777 135.527883